Open Conference Systems, DDAYS LAC 2024 Main Conference

Font Size: 
BISTABILITY DYNAMICS IN SEASONAL SEIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL
Fátima Elis Cruziniani

Building: Cero Infinito
Room: 1101
Date: 2024-12-10 03:00 PM – 03:30 PM
Last modified: 2024-11-19

Abstract


We study the unpredictability of seasonal infectious diseases using a SEIRS model with seasonal forcing. We compute bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents. We show bistable dynamics for all the model parameters. The bistability occurs in two wide regions. One of these regions is limited by periodic attractors, while periodic and chaotic attractors bound the other. The analyzed range displays that the latent period is a crucial variable to understand the unpredictability of infectious diseases. We identify a tipping point associated with unpredictable dynamics.